Tonight marks the Twins first game of the 2009 Season.  They will be hosting the Seattle Mariners at the Metrodome with the first pitch of their 2009 season scheduled for 8:10 EST.

Baseball is reborn again.  I don’t have too much to say on the subject as nearly everything I thought about saying has already been said.  Looking for somewhere to hang out and talk about the game tonight?  I suggest the WGOM‘s game log.  Stickandballguy is handling the opening day log and different WGOM citizens will be writing the logs each night.  I’m moving from the couple of Tuesday game logs I did last year, to doing the Sunday logs all season.  Get ready for a lot of tRA and name-calling on Sundays.

If you want a more substantive post about the game look here:

• Minnesota Twins Most Valuable Blogger’s Opening Day Piece
• Howard of the Strib’s Piece: I agree Howard, Opening Day should be a a National Holiday.  I was going to write about that today, but the Pro beat me to the punch.
• WGOM Game Log [Opens at 7:10 EST]
• This just in from Joe C: “The Twins are wearing their 1982 throwback uniforms tonight. Red hats, the whole works.”

So there you go.  Everyone else is doing their “oh my, thank god Baseball is back” posts today.  Instead of being one of many, I’ll try to post something on that subject [the draft is already done but I didn't post it this morning] later this week.  Or maybe next week.  We’ll see.

Its opening day.  Go Twins!

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The Twins begin the second series on their monster road trip tonight. The Twins arrived in Seattle with an improved bullpen and are looking to snap their two game Anaheim slide. The game starts at 9:10 pm for those of you in Twins Territory or 10:10 pm for the unfortunate souls who live on the east coast. But on second thought, the game starts at 3:10 am in Dublin, so maybe EST folk shouldn’t complain.

Tonight’s Probable Pitchers:

The Mariners will send Miguel Batista (xFIP: 5.17; tRA+ 62) to the mound. Batista has struggled this year against just about everyone. After tossing at least 6 innings in 23 of 32 starts in 2007, Batista has only thrown 6 innings in 5 of 19 starts this year. (And only 2 times in his last 13.) Adding to his woes, during the first inning of his last 13 starts Batista has allowed 16 hits and 16 runs. This season opponents are hitting .305 in the first inning against Batista.

Francisco Liriano (xFIP: 5.18; tRA+ 113) will toe the rubber for the Twins. While Liriano’s season ERA stands at 4.24, since returning to the majors he has gone 4-0 with a 1.14 ERA. During that same span, Liriano has held opponents to a .184 batting average with 20 strikeouts and just one home run. Compare those stats with Liriano’s early season ERA of 11.32, which resulted in an 0-3 record. Pat Neshek has already taken note: the road to recovery is a long, hard path.

(Note: Most people at the WGOM seem to prefer the xFIP stat to evaluate pitchers, but in this case tRA+ seems to be the more accurate measure. If you are interested in learning more about tRA+ check out this article where the basic methodology behind the tRA statistic is explained. For comparison purposes, Cliff Lee sports a tRA+ of 177, and Livan Hernandez’s stands at 93.)

The Mariners are 48-82 this season and have lost 12 of their last 15 games. Even though the Mariners are struggling, Raul Ibanez has continued his second half tear recording 2 or more hits in 10 of his last 20 games resulting in a .420 average. I’m sure every Twins fan remembers the series Ibanez had against the Twins the first week in August; I’m also sure that the Twins don’t want to see him repeat that performance this time around. In order to win this series the Twins will have to find some way to cool off Ibanez.

The Twins’ season record stands at 74-56 and they have won 10 of their last 15 games. Mauer, Punto, and Morneau come into this game hitting the ball well, but their efforts have not translated to wins the last two days. Gaffes in the field by both Busher and Gomez cost the Twins too many runs on Saturday and Sunday, which helped to erase great efforts by both Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey. If they want to win this series the Twins cannot afford to play sloppy defensive baseball, against a Mariners team looking to spoil someones playoff hopes.

Since, tonight’s game starts later than usual in the central and eastern time zones, you’ll probably want some pregame reading materials to pass the time. Take a look at this post over at U.S.S. Mariner: Ahhh, Minnesota. My favorite comment might be #18, but gas-mask versus bag-over-head debate is also entertaining.

Since this is the first game of this series, lets start off the comments with a couple of questions:

1. The Twins have now tried to solve their bullpen woes with the requisition of Every-Day Eddie: Will this trade be enough to fix the Twins’ bullpen issues? Does Eddie automatically take over the eighth inning role, or do you have a better role to recommend?
2. Ignoring pitchers and the M&M boys, who must step up to help the Twins win this series?
3. Bonus pre-game question: Was designating Mike Lamb for assignment the right roster move to make room for Eddie?

8:10PM EST

Silva (4-13)

Liriano (2-3)

The Twin really could use a pitcher with more than two years service time, and in my opinion Fogg seems to be the best available option. Let’s glance at Fogg’s statistics:

Looking at Fogg’s stats, two main things stand out. First, he doesn’t miss time due to injury. Some commentators have stated that Fogg’s greatest attribute is that he is good for around 30 starts each year. (Forgive me, but I can’t remember where I read that, if someone comes across it email me or leave a comment and I’ll make sure to cite the source.) Fogg has made at least 26 starts since 2002. A proven injury free starter would be a great addition to the Twins. Second, he is a fourth or fifth starter. Fogg does not strike out many batters and has a career era of 4.90 which further relegate him to the bottom of the rotation. But while his statistics are by no means spectacular, they are not terrible, and are certainly consistent.

The Twins are not looking for a staff Ace in Josh Fogg. They are looking for someone with experience in the Bigs, and Fogg certainly has that. His statistics while not great are good enough for him to step right into the Twins rotation. In fact, Fogg’s statistics remind me of Carlos Silva’s line. Take a look at the similarities. If the Twins are looking to approximately replace Silva’s innings with a veteran starter, Fogg seems like the perfect match. Granted, Silva’s career era of 4.31 is somewhat lower, but he is also being paid $12 million dollars a year by the Seattle Mariners. So how much would Josh Fogg cost the Twins? Fogg’s salary history is as follows:

• 2002 – $203,000
  
• 2003 – $322,000
  
• 2004 – $342,000
  
• 2005 – $2,150,000
  
• 2006 – $850,000
  
• 2007 – $3,625,000
  

Fogg is probably due a pay increase. But because there has been little to no interest in him outside of Colorado (note: unsubstantiated claim), I can’t imagine that pay increase being large. A deal in the range of 4.5-6.5 million dollars seems about right (After taking into this year’s free agent signings). Whether Fogg would accept a one year deal might be a deal breaker for the Twins, but they are desperate for experience and could sign Fogg for two years as a stopgap, giving their young starters as much time as possible to mature.

The Twins should pull the trigger on this deal if Fogg will sign for under 6.5 Million Dollars per year. The Twins have money to spend. They lack consistency in their rotation. They lack a true veteran presence in their rotation. Their main goal is to be competitive in 2010. Josh Fogg seems to fit this situation perfectly. He’s cheap. He’s consistent. He’s a veteran. He probably won’t be around Minnesota all that long. Plus the other options on the free agent aren’t much better anyway; the only ‘better’ option would be Kyle Lohse and it would have to be a cold day in hell for the Twins offer Lohse a deal. (For those of you who don’t know, read this story about Lohse’s history with the Twins)

Fogg, himself, could also benefit from this signing; from Rick Anderson’s coaching; and a league switch. Rich Anderson is a great coach who is credited with helping Santana, Silva and many of the other Twins pitchers develop. Maybe Anderson would have some adjustments for Fogg to make that would improve his game. Also Fogg spent the majority of his career in the National League, and maybe a change of venues would help him as well. IF Fogg is successful in the American League, or is able to improve his statistics, he could be in line for a deal of Silva’s type (4 years, $48 million dollars). Both sides have the incentive to get this deal done, but what do you think? Should the Twins go after Josh Fogg? If so, for how long and for how much money should the Twins sign him for? Comment with your opinions and Vote in the Left Sidebar Poll.