Josh Fogg – Should the Minnesota Twins Sign the Dragon Slayer?

After the trade of Johan Santana, the Minnesota Twins are certainly short on veteran starting pitching. In fact the de facto veterans of the Twins rotation, Boof Bonser and Scott Baker, only have 48 major league starts each. Rumors are swirling, that the Twins might be in the market for a more experienced pitcher to join their rotation to accommodate the losses of Johan Santana and Carlos Silva. The latest speculation is that the Twins are interested in the Rockies’ free agent Josh Fogg. An article with a link to this particular rumor’s sources (and many other MLB rumors) is at mlbtraderumors.com.

The Twin really could use a pitcher with more than two years service time, and in my opinion Fogg seems to be the best available option. Let’s glance at Fogg’s statistics:

Looking at Fogg’s stats, two main things stand out. First, he doesn’t miss time due to injury. Some commentators have stated that Fogg’s greatest attribute is that he is good for around 30 starts each year. (Forgive me, but I can’t remember where I read that, if someone comes across it email me or leave a comment and I’ll make sure to cite the source.) Fogg has made at least 26 starts since 2002. A proven injury free starter would be a great addition to the Twins. Second, he is a fourth or fifth starter. Fogg does not strike out many batters and has a career era of 4.90 which further relegate him to the bottom of the rotation. But while his statistics are by no means spectacular, they are not terrible, and are certainly consistent.

The Twins are not looking for a staff Ace in Josh Fogg. They are looking for someone with experience in the Bigs, and Fogg certainly has that. His statistics while not great are good enough for him to step right into the Twins rotation. In fact, Fogg’s statistics remind me of Carlos Silva’s line. Take a look at the similarities. If the Twins are looking to approximately replace Silva’s innings with a veteran starter, Fogg seems like the perfect match. Granted, Silva’s career era of 4.31 is somewhat lower, but he is also being paid $12 million dollars a year by the Seattle Mariners. So how much would Josh Fogg cost the Twins? Fogg’s salary history is as follows:

• 2002 – $203,000
  
• 2003 – $322,000
  
• 2004 – $342,000
  
• 2005 – $2,150,000
  
• 2006 – $850,000
  
• 2007 – $3,625,000
  

Fogg is probably due a pay increase. But because there has been little to no interest in him outside of Colorado (note: unsubstantiated claim), I can’t imagine that pay increase being large. A deal in the range of 4.5-6.5 million dollars seems about right (After taking into this year’s free agent signings). Whether Fogg would accept a one year deal might be a deal breaker for the Twins, but they are desperate for experience and could sign Fogg for two years as a stopgap, giving their young starters as much time as possible to mature.

The Twins should pull the trigger on this deal if Fogg will sign for under 6.5 Million Dollars per year. The Twins have money to spend. They lack consistency in their rotation. They lack a true veteran presence in their rotation. Their main goal is to be competitive in 2010. Josh Fogg seems to fit this situation perfectly. He’s cheap. He’s consistent. He’s a veteran. He probably won’t be around Minnesota all that long. Plus the other options on the free agent aren’t much better anyway; the only ‘better’ option would be Kyle Lohse and it would have to be a cold day in hell for the Twins offer Lohse a deal. (For those of you who don’t know, read this story about Lohse’s history with the Twins)

Fogg, himself, could also benefit from this signing; from Rick Anderson’s coaching; and a league switch. Rich Anderson is a great coach who is credited with helping Santana, Silva and many of the other Twins pitchers develop. Maybe Anderson would have some adjustments for Fogg to make that would improve his game. Also Fogg spent the majority of his career in the National League, and maybe a change of venues would help him as well. IF Fogg is successful in the American League, or is able to improve his statistics, he could be in line for a deal of Silva’s type (4 years, $48 million dollars). Both sides have the incentive to get this deal done, but what do you think? Should the Twins go after Josh Fogg? If so, for how long and for how much money should the Twins sign him for? Comment with your opinions and Vote in the Left Sidebar Poll.